Image source, Getty Images By Emer Moreau , Business reporter and Kevin Peachey , Cost of living correspondent Published 15 September 2026, 07:12 BST Updated 4 hours ago The state pension is expected to top 13,000 a year, reigniting the debate about its long-term affordability and generational fairness. The full, flat-rate state pension is expected to rise by 488 a year in April, based on the latest official earnings figure released on Tuesday. The so-called triple lock pension policy guarantees that the state pension will increase by either average wage growth, inflation or 2.5% - whichever is highest. Labour made a manifesto pledge to keep the triple lock until 2029, however economists have warned about the cost of the policy ahead of the Budget although pensioner groups say many people still face poverty in old age. 'Substantial' cost The triple lock was designed to ensure the value of the state pension was not overtaken by the increase in the cost of living or the incomes of working people. Although the state pension age is rising to 67, the cost to the government has risen considerably too. Forecasts suggest state pension spending, already at 154bn this year, could go up by a further 600m a year by 2029-30. The policy is "crazy," Ruth Curtice, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank, told the BBC. The triple lock is creating a "ratchet effect" where "pensioners' living standards grow even faster than just a typical worker," she added. "Pensioners have seen living standards grow three times more than typical workers over the last 20 years." Jonathan Cribb, deputy director of Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank, said: "Each increase in spending builds upon the last and so the long-run cost is substantial but very uncertain." How much could pensioners receive? The state pension is expected to match wage growth in the next calculation and is likely to be higher than the rate of inflation. Average wage growth, including bonuses, stood at 3.9% between May and July, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) , external , down from 4.2% between April and June. But it is higher than average pay growth, not including bonuses, which rose by 3.5%. This means: the flat-rate state pension - for those who reached state pension age after April 2016 will likely be 250.70 a week, or 13,036.40 a year. That would be an increase of 488 the old basic state pension - for those who reached state pension age before April 2016 will likely be 192.10 a week, or 9,989.20 a year, an increase of 374.40 Pensioner groups have said older people face significant cost of living pressures, such as high energy bills and the state pension itself remained relatively small compared with state provision across Europe. The Today Debate: Can we afford the pensions triple lock? Why Gen Z are planning for life without a state pension Published 1 July What is the triple lock and how much is the state pension...
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