Some offers on this page are from advertisers who pay us, which may affect which products we write about, but not our recommendations. See our Advertiser Disclosure . The US-Iran conflict could still drive up food prices. How to get ahead of it. Ivana Pino Senior Writer Updated Wed, July 8, 2026 at 8:50 AM PDT 4 min read The Iran war pushed energy prices higher over the past couple of months, with elevated oil prices beginning to spill over into everyday expenses. And oil prices spiked sharply on Wednesday after US WTI crude ( CL=F ) jumped to $75.54 a barrel and Brent crude ( BZ=F ) climbed to $79.81, as President Trump declared the US-Iran deal "over." Just last week, Brent had fallen below $71 a barrel, its lowest level since before the war began in February. Gas prices, which rose $1.16 a gallon nationally at the height of the war, had eased back to $3.79 but could climb again if the renewed conflict disrupts supply through the Strait of Hormuz. But fuel costs are not the only everyday household budget item to watch . Roughly one-third of the world's fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and the months-long closure raised concerns about supply. Farmers are warning of fertilizer shortages and price increases. Read more: 5 ways oil prices over $100 a barrel could hit your wallet How geopolitical tensions can impact fertilizer prices and farming In a survey of 5,700 farmers, the American Farm Bureau Federation found that fertilizer affordability is becoming an issue within the farming industry. About 70% of farmers report they cannot afford the fertilizer they need, attributing the challenge to rising fertilizer and fuel costs. Fertilizer is one of the largest operating costs for farmers, according to the USDA, Economic Research Service's (ERS) Commodity Costs and Returns data , and energy prices play a key role in determining how much they pay for it. Natural gas is a primary input in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers like ammonia and urea, so when gas prices rise, production costs increase, and fertilizer prices can increase as well. Higher oil prices can also drive prices up indirectly by increasing the cost of transporting and distributing fertilizer. "Fertilizer sits upstream of the global food system, so when geopolitical disruptions hit energy markets or key shipping routes, the effects move into agriculture quickly," said Hunter Swisher, CEO of Phospholutions, an agricultural technology company that focuses on creating more sustainable fertilizers. "The impact is already playing out at the farm level," Swisher said. "Growers are making real-time decisions this planting season based on higher and more volatile input costs." Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said about 80% of farmers had already secured their fertilizer for this year's crop last fall. She said efforts were underway to ensure the remaining farmers were being supported. Farmers told PBS recently that they're concerned prices will stay elevated for a while. "The reality is, we're not breaking even," one farmer told PBS. "We...
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