Ukraine's drone attacks have been dominating headlines about its war with Russia and upended NATO's investment thesis. Having boosted drone production and capabilities in four years of war, Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and military assets, targeting high-profile oil refineries in major cities as part of a sustained push to cut off Russia's energy revenues . Defense experts and strategists have described its drone campaign as pivotal in helping to stall Russia's military momentum, while also warning that Kyiv's deep-strike successes have drastically raised the risk of escalation. Earlier this week, Ukraine marked what appeared to be one of the country's deepest attacks on Russian territory in the war so far. Plumes of black smoke were seen billowing from a key oil refinery in the city of Omsk on Tuesday, prompting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to declare that the country's upgraded drone capabilities have put Siberia "within reach." The Omsk facility is situated nearly 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles) from Ukrainian territory and close to Russia's border with Kazakhstan. Ukraine's advances on the battlefield spotlight how the rapid adoption of drones is reshaping modern warfare, as combat is becoming more autonomous, connected and data-driven. Two things have changed to allow Ukraine to accelerate its long-range drone strikes deep within Russian territory, according to Bob Tollast, a research fellow in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense and security think tank. A concerted effort from Ukrainian forces to boost production and improve inertial navigation, software and machine vision had all helped to improve resilience when satellite navigation is jammed, Tollast said. Foreign support for Ukraine had also likely played a role, he added, noting that oil refineries and terminals were vast targets. "We'll see how Russia responds, they have had limited success with nets and drone interceptors of the kind Ukraine uses, and for some time have placed air defence systems on towers and recently even tall buildings," Tollast told CNBC by email. "But with Ukraine's domestically made cruise missiles like Flamingo on the scene hitting industrial sites (including air defence production) the picture is pretty ugly for Moscow," he continued. "Ukraine's counter refinery campaign is now a rain of blows, but it might be too early to say if Russia will suffer lasting damage because the sector has long had spare capacity," Tollast said. Russia has responded by also scaling its own drone production and integrating them more into its overall military. Beyond the frontline, Ukraine's drone campaign also appears to have influenced NATO's defense spending plans. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Tuesday that drones have "fundamentally altered" the character of modern warfare and have become a "decisive factor" on the battlefield, citing the Russia-Ukraine war as one example. Rutte's comments came as he announced the launch of the alliance's so-called NATO Drone Edge initiative, a plan in which allies are slated to invest more than $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years. "Together, we are building a...
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