Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Beat the S&P 500 in the Second Half of 2026 Anthony Di Pizio, The Motley Fool Thu, July 2, 2026 at 11:20 PM PDT 5 min read ^GSPC NVDA The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is a diversified stock market index made up of 500 companies from 11 different economic sectors. But then there is the S&P 500 Growth index, which exclusively invests in the top 145 growth stocks from the regular S&P 500, while disregarding the other 355 stocks. Therefore, the Growth index has much larger positions in the trillion-dollar technology giants that typically lead the broader market higher, resulting in consistently better annual returns compared to the S&P 500. However, many of those stocks -- which I'll highlight shortly -- have actually underperformed the market so far this year. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEMKT: VOOG) tracks the S&P 500 Growth index. I think the sluggish performance in some of America's largest stocks will reverse in the second half of this year, so here's why I think the exchange-traded fund (ETF) will beat the benchmark index over the next six months. Image source: Getty Images. America's top growth stocks took a breather in the first half of 2026 The S&P 500 Growth index chooses stocks based on their momentum and the sales growth of the underlying companies. As a result, it has relatively large positions in each of the " Magnificent Seven " stocks: Nvidia , Apple , Alphabet , Amazon , Tesla , Meta Platforms , and Microsoft . Those seven companies have a combined market capitalization of $21 trillion, representing 34.3% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization -- but a whopping 50.8% of the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF's market capitalization. Stock Vanguard ETF Weighting S&P 500 Weighting Nvidia 14.26% 7.89% Alphabet 11.04% 6.12% Microsoft 9.29% 5.14% Apple 6.37% 7.05% Amazon 3.89% 4.07% Meta Platforms 3.84% 2.13% Tesla 2.11% 1.89% Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of May 31, 2026, and are subject to change. Except for Alphabet, each one of the Magnificent Seven stocks underperformed the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026. The worst performer -- Microsoft -- was down by a staggering 22.9%. GOOGL data by YCharts Given its enormous exposure to those stocks, it's remarkable that the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF is keeping pace with the S&P 500 at all this year. However, it also has larger positions in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure stocks like Micron Technology , Advanced Micro Devices , Lam Research , and Applied Materials , each of which more than doubled in the first half of the year, helping them pick up some of the slack. Story Continues LRCX data by YCharts...
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