Warsh faces multiple alternative inflation signs as Fed charts new course

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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has said that inflation is a "choice." The same could also be true of how inflation is measured. While the central bank has its own favorite metric courtesy of the Commerce Department, the public data base is rife with other gauges of how price pressures are best viewed. It's likely that many of them will get a serious look as the Warsh Fed plots what he called on Wednesday a "new course" for how it operates and specifically what will be the data triggers for the ways it implements monetary policy. "My hope, my aspiration, is that nine-12 months from now we're going to be using new technologies to understand what's happening in the real economy in a contemporaneous, real-time way that positions us as central bankers to make better decisions," he said during a discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Monetary Policy in Sintra, Portugal. Warsh has formulated five task forces to look at an array of Fed...

Inflation peaked in May as energy prices fell in June, Kalshi traders think

With oil and gas prices falling in the wake of the detente between the U.S. and Iran , prediction market traders now think inflation has peaked. Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi think there's only a 28% chance that headline inflation this year peaks above 4.2%, which was the annual rate of increase in the Consumer Price Index in May . The next CPI report, measuring inflation in June, is due for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on July 14. The contract on Kalshi asks if traders think CPI will deliver a reading above various percentages in 2026. Contracts are resolved using the CPI data released each month by the BLS. The inflation outlook has eased primarily due to recent declines in its main driver: energy prices. After shooting higher after the start of the U.S.-Iran war jn late February and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, gas and oil prices have started to retreat after the partial reopening of the waterway. Average national gasoline prices as of Wednesday stood at $3.84, according to AAA, down from more than $4.50 at their peak. That reflects weaker U.S. crude oil prices, which have fallen below $70 per barrel for the first time since the war began. Energy prices in May accounted for 60% of CPI's month-over-month increase. Now the decline in gas prices is leading Kalshi traders to think that CPI in June will show prices falling by 0.2% compared with May, in-line with Wall Street consensus estimates.

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