Netflix Is Losing Viewers To The World Cup. That May Be The Wrong Measure Of The Business. Jim Osman Sun, July 12, 2026 at 8:49 AM PDT 5 min read NFLX (NFLX) reports second-quarter earnings on July 16, three days before the World Cup final. That is awkward timing. The biggest sporting event on the planet is taking viewers away from almost every other form of entertainment, and Netflix does not own the rights. Engagement will likely drop. It would be strange if it did. But I think investors are in danger of drawing the wrong conclusion from that. More News from Barchart Taiwan Just Waved a Red Flag for Nvidia Stock Taiwan Semi Stock Is Approaching Fair Value Ahead of July 16. How to Play TSM Here. Forget GPUs. Nvidia's Next AI Gold Mine Could Be Even Bigger. Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Watching less (NFLX) during the World Cup is not the same as cancelling (NFLX). It is not the same as weaker pricing. It is not the same as lower advertising revenue. And it certainly is not proof that the business has lost its relevance. The World Cup began on June 11, so it only affected the final 20 days of (NFLX)'s second quarter. Most of the knockout rounds, including the final, fall into the current quarter. That means the July 16 numbers will only provide a partial picture. Management's comments will matter more. (NFLX) shares have fallen sharply since April. At around 23 times trailing earnings, the stock is not obviously cheap, but investors are treating the company more critically. The next stage of the story must come from better monetization, not just from adding millions of subscribers each quarter. That is what I will be watching. Viewing Hours Can Be Misleading Investors like simple numbers. Subscriber growth worked for years because (NFLX) was expanding into new households and new countries. The faster subscribers grew, the stronger the story looked. That measure becomes less useful as the business matures. (NFLX) is currently boosting rates, establishing an ad business and selectively going into live programming. A consumer who stays on the platform, watches fewer hours, and pays a higher fee may generate more value because they also contribute to advertising revenue, compared to a heavy viewer on a lower plan. So, I would be cautious about interpreting lower engagement as a major concern in itself. The first-quarter results didn't indicate (NFLX) was suddenly in trouble. Revenue increased 16.2% to $12.25 billion. Operating income climbed 18% to nearly $4 billion, and the operating margin was 32.3%. Management also reiterated its full-year sales outlook of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion and its operating margin target of 31.5%. Those are good stats. Story Continues The concern is that second-quarter margin guidance was weaker. (NFLX) expects a margin of 32.6%, down from 34.1% a year earlier. Management...
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