Oil Markets Are Pricing A Supply Surge That Isn’t Guaranteed Irina Slav Sun, June 28, 2026 at 4:00 PM PDT 5 min read Crude oil prices are in freefall after the United States and Iran agreed on a ceasefire, set to last 60 days. Traders expect the ceasefire to unleash an avalanche of crude, and indeed, tankers are leaving the Persian Gulf in growing numbers. And yet Iran just struck a commercial ship in Hormuz. Bloomberg reported earlier this week that the ceasefire prompted huge discounts in available crude cargoes, noting how Angolan crude was selling at a $10 discount to dated Brent for the first time in a decade. Not only this, but Chinese refiners were offering crude oil cargoes for sale, the publication wrote, citing unnamed traders. "You actually get a discount to buy a barrel now versus a barrel tomorrow because of the weakness in the Asian pull on Middle Eastern grades," Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg. "Reopening is going well and quickly." This appears to be the general feeling in trading and analyst circles. Indeed, analysts were somewhat baffled by the speed with which oil prices dropped amid the reports of more tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz loaded. "The market has rebalanced through a meaningfully different mix of demand losses and inventory withdrawals than we initially assumed," JP Morgan commodity analysts said , as quoted by the Wall Street Journal. ING, however, sounded a note of caution. "The market is largely focused on the resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to increase," the Dutch bank's commodity team wrote today. "However, much of the increase reflects previously stranded vessels leaving the Persian Gulf. Vessel flows into the Gulf remain much more modest." Indeed, the Wall Street Journal also noted in its report that while there has been a strong rebound in tanker traffic out of Hormuz, it is made up of stranded vessels finally allowed to exit the chokepoint. Incoming tankers, however, are nowhere near outgoing numbers. The publication cited the chief executive of Phillips 66 as estimating some 90 to 100 million barrels set to leave the strait and adding, "Then the question is: Who will be brave enough to send ships back in? Will they be able to get insurance? How does that all play out?" Interestingly, Bloomberg also focused on the stranded tankers now leaving the Strait of Hormuz as the basis for its prediction that a flood of crude is coming into the market. The suggestion here is that oil markets are about to flip from deficit to excess in a matter of days, which was immediately reflected in prices. "The market might be a little bit overenthusiastic of how quickly the supply side, particularly inventories, are going to stabilize," TD Securities' global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told the Wall Street Journal. Story Continues The reported Iranian strike on a commercial vessel in Hormuz earlier this week could give...
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