A US soldier was arrested for betting with classified intel now regulators want to crack down on prediction markets Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images Aditi Ganguly Mon, June 22, 2026 at 7:30 AM PDT 8 min read Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. As concerns grow surrounding the prediction market industry, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed new limits on what topics can and can’t be subject to wagers. While sports bettors might shrug, people who enjoy exploring the fringes of prediction markets are likely to grumble. Top Picks Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake here’s how to fix it ASAP JP Morgan sees gold hitting $6,000/oz before 2027 and a Gold IRA lets you hold the physical metal while deferring the tax bill. Get your free guide from Priority Gold The ultra-rich use these 5 real estate strategies to build wealth while they sleep you can start with just $100 The proposal, which was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, would give the CFTC the ability to block wagers it feels are not in the public interest or could be susceptible to manipulation (1). That would likely do away with bets on things like war or player injuries in sports, though wagering on the outcome of the game would still be permitted. If placing wagers on the outcomes of military actions seems unlikely to you, you might be surprised to know it’s already happening and a U.S. soldier has already been caught in the crossfire. No specific bans The proposal issued by the CFTC doesn’t come out of nowhere. It follows existing guidance the CFTC has already given to prediction markets on where bets should be avoided. However, while the proposal does outline the factors regulators will use when determining if a bet is appropriate, it does not specifically list any type of banned topics. The objective, say officials, is not to hinder growth, but rather to regulate the markets and cut down on fraud and bets on geopolitical events which could lure people with knowledge of secret information to make a bet, potentially alerting an enemy to a military attack or endangering lives. In fact, this was an issue earlier this year when the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York announced a U.S. soldier named Gannon Ken Van Dyke had been arrested and charged for placing bets on Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction markets, using classified information he had access to regarding the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the former president of Venezuela (2). Van Dyke allegedly bet just over $33,000 on the markets before the military action, winning nearly $410,000, officials say. He was charged with three counts of breaking the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction. All told, this could amount to a maximum sentence of 60 years in prison....
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