Australia posts second-quarter growth of 2.1%, beating expectations

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Australia's economic growth beat expectations in the second quarter, expanding 2.1% year on year, data released Wednesday showed. Economists polled by Reuters had estimated growth at 1.8%, while the economy had expanded by 2.5% in the prior quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 0.4%, also marginally surpassing expectations of 0.3%. The slight growth was driven by private demand and mining exports. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said in its statement that households continued to behave cautiously, with spending remaining subdued and rising just 0.4%. Households reduced fuel consumption due to elevated prices owed to the Middle East conflict, and cut domestic and international travel. The stronger-than-expected GDP print will allow the Reserve Bank of Australia room to go ahead with its policy tightening as it seeks to curb inflation. At its last meeting , some RBA board members had considered the case for additional tightening, saying that inflation in the country w...
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Prediction market traders think job creation rebounded in August

After a disappointing July payrolls report that showed the economy lost jobs that month, traders on prediction market platforms think August will show a rebound in hiring, though potentially not as strong as economists think. Speculators on Kalshi see 50-50 odds that more than 50,000 jobs were created last month. That implies a slightly lower outlook than Dow Jones consensus estimate for 53,000 jobs created in August. On the contracts on the market, traders are asked whether they think the U.S. added more than a certain number of jobs in the month. The contracts are resolved using official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prediction market traders on Polymarket give a 48% likelihood the economy created more than 50,000 jobs in August. For two months in a row, prediction market traders and economists have overestimated payroll numbers. Both expected job creation numbers in the six figures in June when they actually came in just below 60,000 and for the economy to create jobs in July when it ended up losing them. Given that, traders on Kalshi see a wide range for a beat or miss. Speculators on the platform see about 1-in-4 odds for a contract that implies the U.S. actually lost jobs last month, and a similar likelihood for another contract that asks if the country created more than 80,000 jobs in the period. The August employment reading will be delivered at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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